Note to Self: Write Something About the Cubs

It has been difficult the last week or so to make any meaningful posts because I am at the point where I just don't care. I just want the season to start already, and I really don't care who the closer is, whether the Cubs want or need extra night games, who ends up at the back end of the bullpen, or whether Mark DeRosa abusing Ted Lilly's pitches means anything.

For the love of God, can I just fast-forward a week so we can start playing the Houston Astros in a game that matters?

But alas, I have another week of hearing about whether Carlos Marmol is a whiny bitch or a disappointed competitor, debate about releasing an old crappy back-up catcher in favor of keeping a younger crappy back-up catcher with fingers held on by duct tape, and wondering which gasoline-tossing reliever we would most like to boo when he comes into a game.

This is usually the point in the year when it would be handy to have Ozzie Guillen step up and fill the void in actual news by coming out of nowhere and questioning a sportswriter's sexuality or threatening the life of Magglio Ordonez. No one is interested in a debate about whether Aaron Miles or Ryan Theriot is more worthless with a bat in his hand when Ozzie gets his mouth going. But its been all quiet on the Southern front so far.

Even my fantasy teams are boring right now. The biggest news to shake my teams is that Brandon Morrow, who I own on both teams, will now be a closer instead of a starter. Seeing as I was thin in the bullpen on both teams, this actually works out pretty well for me so far.

God help me, its only a matter of time before people start trying to talk about a Peavy trade again.

7 Days, 1 Hour, 46 Minutes until Opening Day.

7 Days, 1 Hour, 45 Minutes, and 30 seconds....

Finger Crossing Time for Fukudome Fans

I've been listening a bit to the White Sox audio feed of the Cubs/Sox game this afternoon. Normally, I can't stand listening to the visiting teams' announcers because it makes me miss Pat Hughes too much. (I also like Ron, but I can add my own "Oh nooo!!"s when listening to a game.)

Today, I didn't mind so much because I've grown to appreciate Ed Farmer a bit as a broadcaster. He's got a bit of a dry sense of humor that gets easily missed, but its there. If he didn't broadcast Sox games, I might actually like him.

During the broadcast, I usually perked up a little when Fukudome came to the plate since this was his first game back with the Cubs after returning from the WBC. Unfortunately, a couple of the quotes from Farmer that I heard didn't sound promising for those of us hoping to see a resurgence in his numbers this season.

During his second at-bat (in the first inning - it was a good inning for the Cubs):

"Fukudome almost broke MY back with that swing."

In the 6th:

"Swing at a breaking ball... looked like he had never seen one of those before."

Again, I didn't actually see the game, and these were quotes taken from the opposing team's broadcaster, but I don't believe they were said with a vindictive anti-Cub sentiment. Farmer and Darren Jackson spent quite a bit of time talking about what a good team the Cubs have again this year, so there seemed to be at least professional respect from them.

If that is true, those are not the kind of descriptions that you want to hear about Fukudome at-bats. You want to hear about how he battled. He want to hear about how he was "right on" that pitch but fouled it off. You want to hear a description of a hard hit ball somewhere, even if it is foul.

You don't want to hear that he looks lost and/or awkward at the plate. We saw enough of that at the end of the year last year. Between the two Farmer descriptions and the analysis of his WBC at-bats at Cubs f/x, I'm not feeling very positive about Fukudome's ability to achieve even the lowered expectations we have for him.

Its the first game and he has a couple more weeks to learn what a breaking ball looks like, but if I'm Reed Johnson, I'm starting to get ready to play more than 100 games this year.

If I'm Jim Hendry, I'm making sure I have Jim Edmonds phone number saved in my cell phone.

As it is, I'm practicing writing "K" on a score card.

Who Needs Two? Easy Financing Available!

I looked at Ed Sherman's blog in Chicago Crain's Business and saw that the Yankees are selling front row tickets to a game against Oakland for just under $2,700... EACH.

I love baseball. I L-O-V-E baseball. But there is absolutely no way in hell that I would EVER purchase seats that cost $2,700 EACH.

Maybe when the Cubs are playing Game 7 of the World Series at Wrigley and my ticket plan has screwed me out of having tickets for that game. Then, and only then, would I start contemplating the idea of purchasing a seat for that price. That's when I start selling anything of value that I own in order to finance getting me into that ballpark.

In any other situation, I would assume that my $2,700 guaranteed me an at-bat in the game, or a chance to pitch. Perhaps, it includes a night on the town picking up women with Derek Jeter. Maybe the chair is made of gold and you get to take it home with you after the game as a memento.

Sherman does make the point that this ticket price level is not being aimed at the blue-collar Yankee fan families. They are being made available to the corporations who want to impress business clients. Lets face it, no one actually NEEDS to sit in the front row of a baseball game. I actually prefer my vantage point from up in Aisle 424 to any other seat in Wrigley for watching the game.

But those seats are not for watching the game. Much as a Rolex is not purchased so you know what time it is. You don't buy a Ferrari so you can have something to drive to the grocery store. These are items that are intended for showing off - and that comes at a heavy price.

It will be interesting to see how these new stadiums (the Mets' new facility is similarly structured to cater to the luxury-seeking fans) will succeed in actually selling the mega-priced seats.

Earlier this month, waxpaperbeercup hypothesized that scalpers might have a harder time selling the mega-priced seats already.

Today, I talked with a friend whose company had given up their seats for the Cubs games this year, and I wondered how many others have done the same. The Cubs claim that they had a 98% retention rate, but season ticket holders need to tell the Cubs they are renewing by the end of November.

At that point, the economy was bad, but the Dow was bouncing around in the mid-8,000s as opposed to the recent dip down into the 6,000s. The national unemployment rate in Q3 for 2008 was at 6.0, it now stands at 8.1 and rising.

This is not the time for anyone - corporate or otherwise, to be shelling out $2,700 for a single game ticket. Even if you can afford it, you are basically flipping the bird to all the hard-working fans that had to save for a month to be able to afford to take their son to a ballgame.

While there are plenty of douchebags out there who have absolutely no problem with flaunting their money in a time of economic crisis, the number of potential buyers has to be reduced overall.

I'm curious what the atmosphere at the ballpark will be this year. Will there be a lack of families? Will the college fratboys be able to afford the secondary market prices for the bleachers? Will beer sales be up or down? Beer sales in Q4 of 2008 were down 9.3%, but that is a historical anomaly as shown here. So how many drunkards will there be?

So many previous factors in driving the ridiculous demand for Cubs tickets have changed in the short time from the last out of 2008. I've complained before about the Cubs' lack of any customer service savvy before, but this year they should probably watch a self-help video or something because people aren't going to be as forgiving of a rude security guard, a clueless usher, or a mind-numbingly slow concession vendor when they are spending money they no longer take for granted.

I'm not sure what the Yankee's will have to do to justify the $2,700 seats for their customers. I mean, I can guess, but its usually the kind of services you associate with Craigslist.

The Aisle 424 Fantasy Curse

It's fantasy baseball time and while I will not bore everyone with a blow-by-blow description of the recent auction and draft in which I participated, I feel that in the interest of honesty and transparency, I must disclose a few items about my teams.

First off, it is important to remember that I value actual success over fantasy success, so my owning a non-Cub does not incline me to cheer for that player against the Cubs. However, if the Cubs are going to get beat, I would like it to be due to the accomplishments of my fantasy player so I can at least have a consolation prize.

Also, as a believer in curses, I will tell you that the the Aisle 424 Fantasy Curse is alive and well. Any player that becomes a member of "Boom! Roasted" or "I Love Lamp" will inevitably experience an inability to play baseball well, be unable to stay physically capable of playing, or a combination of the two.

The good news is that only two players from the Cubs will be hit with the Aisle 424 Curse: Rich Harden and Mike Fontenot. I'm not saying they are doomed for sure, but Rich Hill was a viable pitcher before I picked him up last year. Other players with meteoric declines over the past few years while residing on my teams include Travis Hafner, Adrian Beltre, and Eric Chavez.

I hated to do it to two Cubs that I genuinely like, but I simply couldn't pass up Fontenot in the late rounds, and I kept Harden from last year after he managed to beat the curse by exceeded my expectations in staying healthy for a large percentage of the year.

The good news is that I damaged both Chris Carpenter's recovery and Jason Motte's emergence as a closer in St. Louis by making them part of the "I Love Lamp" roster. Southsiders should not be expecting a great season from Alexei Ramirez, because he's my shortstop. I also decided to punish James Loney for that grand slam off of Dempster in the NLDS by picking him up in the late rounds.

"Boom! Roasted" (Nothing beats a good Steve Carell quote for a team name) does more damage in the NL Central division (and should therefore help the Cubs). Every team but Houston is represented in my lineup in some way. Albert Pujols cost me $44 to keep so he is almost assuredly due to break a leg or something.

Meanwhile, Ryan Doumit, Corey Hart, Joey Votto, and Nate McLouth should all be talking to their teams about long-term extensions now because they won't be in as enviable a negotiating situation come the end of the season.

So I apologize ahead of time to Fontenot and Harden. I know how hard you both worked to get where you are today and I wish you both the best of luck.

Poor bastards have no idea what is about to hit them.

Don't Worry, Be Happy

The slow Spring Training is really taking a toll on the Chicago baseball writers. They are no longer able to write the same old stuff about what little is actually happening, they are forced into having to speculate on what might happen in our worst nightmares. The other day, the Tribune's Paul Sullivan presented his 9 Reasons to Worry About the Chicago Cubs.

The Cub Reporter has a more tongue-in-cheek version of the many worries that haunt us Cub fans in the middle of the night.

I guess I'm just not that worried about the Cubs this year. I'm not sure where it is written that a Cub fan must be a faithful, drinking-the-Kool-Aid, pro-Cubs zombie who believes every piece of propaganda published in Vineline or a paranoid, conspiracy theorist, bundle of nerves who not only sees the glass as half empty, but sees that the glass has deadly poison in it instead of water.

I'll admit that I tend to be more of the latter, but I'm not crawling up into a fetal position over any of the worries that Mr. Sullivan outlines.

"Harden's shoulder: The Cubs decided to take it slowly this spring with Rich Harden, who suffered a shoulder tear last summer and rehabbed all winter. He has thrown only 4 2/3 innings, or about the same amount as a pitcher in the second week of spring training. After being scratched Friday with the flu, Harden has three starts remaining to get prepared for the season. That's unlikely to be enough time, so expect the bullpen to be taxed if Harden starts the season in the rotation instead of on the disabled list."

We knew Harden has had arm problems since before he was ever a Cub. His injury history is no secret and both the Cubs and their fans knew what they were getting themselves into by acquiring him. If the Cubs had pinned all of their hopes on a rotation anchored by Harden, as they did with Wood and Prior, then not only would I worry, but I would be pissed as hell that Hendry doesn't learn from his past mistakes.

But that is not the case here. Harden is the #4 starter, and in all reality, he will be the #5 because he will most likely have starts skipped instead of Sean Marshall.

Even if he goes down for an expanded period of time, the Cubs have Aaron Heilman waiting for a shot at the rotation and he should perform as well, if not better than most teams' #5 starters. Failing that, Jeff Samardzija can be handed the ball for a start or two

It is shocking to see that the Cubs have more than one contingency plan, but they do, and I'm not overly concerned.

"Lee's age: Derrek Lee is 33 but looks much older this spring. A quad injury has slowed him down, and he was hitting .179 going into the weekend. Lee also had a poor spring last year but hit .364 with eight home runs in April. The problem is he hit only .275 with 12 homers the rest of the season. Lee must prove his poor second-half was an anomaly, not a trend."

Derrek Lee is a victim of his own success with the Cubs. His 2005 season raised the bar of expectations for him. While the lack of power outside of the month of April is a bit troubling, Lee has always been a streaky hitter. Again, we knew that (or should have known that) when we acquired him from Florida. Anybody who played fantasy baseball at all knew that Derrek Lee finished his seasons with an average of about .275, 20+ homeruns, and around 80 RBIs, but that he would have maddening stretches of no production at all along the way, and he would kill your team if you kept playing him during those stretches.

It made him a very good #6 hitter in the Florida lineup, and a poor candidate to be a #3 hitter in the Cubs lineup. Fortunately, he stepped up his production and minimized his stretches of ineptitude with the bat when he came to the Cubs. But now that is the expectation. He is 33 and probably will start having seasons similiar to the .275/20/80 player that we originally acquired.

The solution is to move him down in the order where he becomes a very good #6 hitter again. Ramirez, Bradley, Soto in the 3, 4, 5 slots in the order will provide balance, power, and consistency to a part of the order where consistency is key.

Plus, Sullivan doesn't point out that the .275 "the rest of the way" after April included a .234 mark in May. After May, Lee hit .283 in June, .292 in July, .301 in August, and .274 in September. Lets not put him in his grave quite yet for having one bad month last Spring

"Marmol's psyche: Carlos Marmol said he doesn't even think about his blown save for the Dominican Republic in their elimination game in the World Baseball Classic, and if it bothered him what value would he have as the the club's most valuable reliever, whether in a closing or setup role. It's imperative Marmol has a clear head and confidence in his stuff. As Marmol goes, so go the Cubs."

I'm not sure why Marmol's psyche suddenly is so fragile. Marmol has always worried me a bit because he seems to be so much raw talent and so little baseball instinct. The high-talent, low-instinct guys tend to fall off the table pretty quickly once whatever it was that made them special starts to fade. I don't see any reason why Marmol's talent would start to fade this year in particular. He's young and the league really hasn't shown they have figured him out yet.

He even survived a stretch last year where it appeared he was imploding before our eyes. He hit the All-Star break and came back the dominant guy we had seen through the beginning of the year.

Again, the Cubs come armed with a back-up plan if Marmol falters. They have Kevin Gregg, who has been superb so far this Spring, and is more than capable of filling the closer role.

"Soriano's legs: The Cubs were 69-38 with Alfonso Soriano starting in left field last year. They were only 28-26 when he didn't start because of a leg injury or rest. Soriano began training early this winter because he was disappointed in himself for being injured, and the dividends appear to be paying off. Keeping Soriano healthy is of utmost importance."

The Cubs have been fine the last two years with Soriano's legs not being what we thought we were buying when he signed his contract. The Cubs have outfield depth whether in the form of Micah Hoffpauir or Jake Fox, who both deserve a shot at real major league pitching in a real major league game. The fact that only one (if any) of them will be on the roster when the Cubs break camp in Mesa speaks to the depth this team has at corner outfield.

While neither Hoffpauir nor Fox are going to impress anyone with their defensive prowess, they don't have to because the man they would potentially replace is a brutal outfielder. It would be difficult for them to get worse.

"Fukudome's head: Kosuke Fukudome, the $48 million outfielder, failed to live up to the hype after a good start in April and May. Fukudome hit .235 for Japan in the WBC, failing to show progress from his '08 slump. The Cubs appear intent on keeping him in the majors instead of sending him to Triple-A Iowa, so hopefully he wakes up by Opening Day."

Fukudome will be given opportunities to earn the money in his contract, but if he doesn't show any improvement over the end of last year, Lou will lose patience and you'll see Reed Johnson patrolling centerfield on a regular basis and Jim Hendry on his cell phone asking other teams if they have any centerfielders they might like to trade. Hell, he may give Jim Edmonds a jingle to see whats up. Given the offense that the Cubs have in the rest of their order, having Fukudome or Johnson batting 8th with a collective .260 average will probably be enough to get by.

"Bullpen depth: After Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman and Neal Cotts, the Cubs' bullpen is shaky at best, meaning more trips to the mound for pitching coach Larry Rothschild. Veterans Chad Gaudin and Luis Vizcaino have had poor springs, and the Cubs may bring up Rule 5 pick David Patton, who never has pitched above Class A. The decision to wave goodbye to Kerry Wood could come back to haunt them."

There are few bullpens in the league where you feel confident handing the ball to guys who are fifth, sixth, seventh deep in a bullpen. As much as the specialists have been developed by the modern game, no kid dreams of growing up to become a left-handed relief specialist in a bullpen. You dream about starting or you dream about closing.

Bullpens are inherently filled with failed starters and failed closers, and those guys are generally only around until someone cheaper shows up to replace them.

If the Cubs get anything useful out of David Patton, its a bonus because they do have some other young guys (Wells, Waddell) and veterans (Fox, Stanton) that have pitched effectively in the spring and could easily fill less pressure-packed roles in the bottom part of any bullpen.

"Soto's durability: With Henry Blanco gone, catcher Geovany Soto will be called on to start 140 or more games, after starting in 131 last year. Soto proved his endurance in 2008, but the Cubs don't have a backup who is a proven hitter at the big-league level. Piniella can't afford to wear him out."

I know there is a lot of Hank White love out there, and I did like him in a backup role, but projecting that Soto will have to catch more this year because Henry Blanco isn't on the roster anymore seems like an awful stretch for something to be worried about. I find it hard to believe that Paul Sullivan really feels that Hank White is so irreplaceable that it will torpedo the Cubs entire year. I think he just needed to fill some space.

"Infield depth: There still is no viable backup third baseman on the roster if Aramis Ramirez misses any extended time. The Corey Koskie experiment was doomed from the outset, and Esteban German isn't the answer either. Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles can be used in a pinch, but not long term."

OK - finally a real concern. Yes - the Cubs do not have anyone to back up Aramis Ramirez at third base. The problem with this being a real problem is that he is concerned about a long-term answer at third base. Well, its hard to have a long-term replacement set and waiting for your offense's most potent weapon in the unlikely event of something catastrophic happening.

This would be like me worrying that I don't have a parachute for when my plane explodes in mid-air. If something truly bad happens to Ramirez, the Cubs are in trouble. There are no ways around it, but I have dedicated this season to not worrying about the one set of circumstances that could blow up the season.

Plus, the Cubs aren't totally screwed in this area because they are more than capable of making a deal for a veteran third baseman in the case of an emergency. They won't get Evan Longoria, but they might be able to get someone like Scott Rolen or Chipper Jones if they have anything left in their tank.

"Piniella's demeanor: The Cubs manager has been way too calm this spring, meaning the next outburst could be a major eruption. Piniella has not been ejected from a game since June of 2007. Will the old Piniella ever return, or has he mellowed for good?"

I'm not even sure how Piniella not being a frothing lunatic is a reason to worry. I'm not sure why Paul seems concerned that Lou hasn't been throwing bases around in Mesa during games that don't count. It seems to me he has called out his hitters when they weren't giving him decent at-bats so I'm not quite sure what else he would like to see. Piniella has been in baseball for quite a while and I'm sure that we will not all be sitting around a bar in the winter of 2009 cursing Lou Piniella for being too lax in the clubhouse.

Of course, any combination of the horror stories detailed by Sullivan could submarine the Cubs season, and of course, that is why they play the games. But I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. I will however be losing sleep over my continuing nagging cough, but that shouldn't have any effect on the Cubs, so the the rest of you can rest easy.

I'm Not 100%, So I'm Benching Myself

The flu-like symptoms that have hit the Cubs' two most fragile players, Milton Bradley and Rich Harden have traveled all the way to Aisle 424. It seems no one is safe from the Cactus League Flu.

Of course, I don't actually have the flu, but there are certainly some symptoms, so I feel that is enough to justify holding myself out of all blogging activities in order to be able to get back into it when it really counts. I feel confident in this diagnosis as I have worked closely with physicians in my actual working life and I think I have acquired some advanced medical training through osmosis.

Also, I used to watch ER on a regular basis, so I am comfortable asking my girlfriend to run an MRI, chem-7 and lights - stat. She usually will just scratch her nose with her middle finger whenever I make this request of her, and she generally doesn't like when I compare her nursing skills unfavorably with those of Carol Hathaway or even Chundi.

Today I am feeling better and as you can see, I have begun posting, though I stayed away from any linking or formatting that may cause a setback. I have also started simulating typing and mouse-clicking with a towel. My index fingers have not felt this good this early in a season for quite some time. I credit my off-season strength and conditioning program involving watching a lot of the MLB Network and playing Baseball Tycoon on Facebook.

If I stay on schedule, I am confident that I will be ready to go full-speed very soon and, God willing, I will not miss any of the regular season. I'm anxious to get back to posting regularly and playing a major role in Cubs blogging during the upcoming season.... cough, cough, hack......wheeeze... cough....

Excuse me......... Thanks for your patience.... cough....

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

The World Baseball Classic is probably not taking off in popularity the way Bud Selig would have hoped. The United States has met the WBC with a combination of oblivion, boredom, and animosity that it even exists.

A decent post addressing some of the WBC issues and potential solutions can be found here at the Bleed Cubbie Blue site (though there has been a charge from the anti-BCB site, Fire Al Yellon, that the post is plagiarized). For my purposes, I don't really care who wrote it first, the post serves as a good summary so I don't have to bore my three readers by rehashing it.

Obviously, I have not been following much of the WBC on purpose, despite its best efforts to get me engaged. First, Italy, featuring a roster whose best known name belonged to hitting coach, Mike Piazza, took down the Canadian team featuring Justin Morneau, Russel Martin, and Jason Bay.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands starring such baseball superstars as Sidney Ponson and Randall "Sausage King of Chicago" Simon knocked off the highly favored Dominican Republic with Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz and others. But I still didn't care all that much.

I found myself tuning in to the game between Puerto Rico and the United States last night because A) Ted Lilly was starting for the U.S. team and I hadn't seen him pitch yet this spring, B) it was an elimination game so I hoped there would be some drama, and C) there really wasn't anything else on that was worth watching - which was ultimately the deciding factor.

The game went back and forth early on. Lilly gave up a couple of homeruns, Kevin Youkilis hit a monster homerun of his own, Carlos Beltran made a great catch that appeared to steal a homerun away from Brian McCann (the replay shows pretty clearly that it would have stayed in the park), and Derek Jeter's lack of range at shortstop allowed an insurance run to give Puerto Rico a 5-3 lead going into the bottom of the 9th.

All of that was fine and enough to keep me from actively turning the channel as I played around on my laptop. I also noticed that someone in the stands had a whistle that they would not stop blowing throughout the game. How they didn't end up hyperventilating and passing out, I will never know. It was a standard of annoying fan behavior that is unmatched by even our own Ronnie Woo. (This is not to be interpreted as a call for Ronnie to step up his Wooing capabilities.)

As the game turned to the bottom of the 9th inning, it reminded me why I love baseball.

Shane Victorino opened with a single to right. Brian Roberts quickly went down two strikes but fought back with a line drive into center for another single. Suddenly, the tying run was on base with Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Kevin Youkilis due up.

Jeter also worked the count and hit a hard line drive deep to right that allowed Victorino to tag and head to third base, which seemed unimportant at the time, but when Jimmy Rollins stepped up, Brian Roberts stole second base (barely) and put the tying run in scoring position. The Puerto Rican pitcher, J.C. Romero, responded by walking Rollins and that was the end of his day.

As Puerto Rico brought in Fernando Cabrera to try to end the rally, I found that I was no longer messing around on the computer and was actually invested in the game. Cabrera was in way over his head in that situation, promptly walking Kevin Youkilis to force in a run and bring the score to 5-4 with still only one out.

The U.S. lineup got no easier with David Wright coming to the plate next. Wright ended the game by taking a 2-1 pitch and lining it just inside the right field line to drive in the tying and winning runs.





The U.S. team flooded the field and they celebrated like they had won the pennant. Youkilis came very close to decapitating Wright in a celebratory headlock that probably would have killed a lesser conditioned person. It was the kind of finish that could build up some real enthusiasm for the WBC.

Unfortunately, it was only aired on the fledgling MLB Network, so only a small percentage of people probably had an opportunity to watch it, which is a shame.

If the WBC can continue to provide the upsets and last at-bat heroics that peppered the first two rounds, this could become a much more important event every four years. We shall see, but it certainly has made me anxious to see some real baseball where the outcome matters.

How many more weeks until Opening Day?