Things Looking Up?

I didn't get to see a ton of the Cubs/Milwaukee series this past weekend. The one game that was on WGN up in Cheeseland, where I wouldn't have to put up with Brewers announcers, was the 11-2 stinkfest, so I stuck to ESPN mobile updates and Twitter to keep me posted.

Despite the Fukudome-esque death spiral being suffered by Alfonso Soriano, the Cubs managed to take three of four from the mighty Brewers and their AAA pitching staff. They have managed to pull within a game and a half of the Brewers, and within two and a half of the first-place Cardinals.

The Cubs seem to be that team that the Brewers just can't seem to take out. Growing up, the Cardinals were that team for the Cubs. The Cubs would be having a nice run and then they would play the Cardinals and would more often than not come out of the series feeling worse about themselves.

The Cubs seem to be that team to the Brewers. Milwaukee came to town up on the Cubs by 3 1/2 with an opportunity to push them back as far as 7 1/2 games with only half the schedule remaining. Instead, the Cubs pounded on them to open the series, beat them in a pitching duel the next game, opened the door a crack by playing a god-awful game on Saturday, then stepped on their throats again on Sunday. It is the kind of series that is absolutely maddening as a fan, and it is fantastic to be on the other side of it for once.

The series must have gotten to Ryan Braun as well. Braun, who seems more and more like the kind of jagoff you just want to punch in the head for simply existing, has started ripping on his own pitching staff, and no doubt endearing himself to his team mates.

"No matter who is in there, we have to find a way to throw the ball better for us to have success," Braun said. "I think when you're constantly behind in games, it's not easy and it's not fun."

Say what you want about Milton Bradley, but he hasn't thrown his own team mates under the bus during the Cubs' struggles.

Meanwhile, off the field for the Cubs, the Tribune is reporting that they have apparently reached a deal with the Ricketts family on the sale of the Cubs.

"Tribune Co. has reached a deal to sell the Chicago Cubs and Wrigley Field to the Ricketts family, a source familiar with matter said this morning.

The two sides finalized a sale agreement over the weekend and have forwarded the contract to Major League Baseball, the source said.

The deal must be approved by other baseball owners. With Tribune Co. operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the sale also will need court approval.

The source said the sales price is "close" to the $900 million bid the Ricketts offered earlier this year that won an auction for the baseball team, stadium and a 25 percent stake in Comcast SportsNet Chicago, a regional cable television sports network."

MLB has stated before that they were not the ones holding up the deal, and that they were hopeful for a speedy sale. The ball is in their court now to actually approve this before the next Presidential election.

Speaking of courts and government, it's any one's guess how long it will take a bankruptcy court to approve the sale, so I'm still not anticipating a FINAL sale until after the trade deadline.

Finally, the Cubs make the "equivalent" to a trade by being able to insert Aramis Ramirez, Reed Johnson, and Angel Guzman back onto the active roster. While this is a good thing overall, there are some difficult choices being made as I type this, as I have not seen what the moves will be yet.

----------------
UPDATE
----------------

Per Gordon Wittenmyer via Twitter:

"Fuld, Hart optioned to AAA; Patton DL (groin). Makes room for Rami, Guzman, Johnson."

"SuperRami batting 5th: fuky, riot, lee, milt, rami, sori, soto, font, wells."

Obviously, the Cubs either do not read this site, or they don't care. Neither of which is a surprise.

----------------

I said yesterday on Twitter that they should send down Micah Hoffpauir, Jeff Samardzija, and put Alfonso Soriano on the DL for his knee. This recommendation is based on the idea that Hoffpauir has options left, which I'm not 100% sure that he does.

No matter what, Soriano should hit the DL. It will give him a mental break, and it would allow him to play a few rehab games in the minors to get his swing back without all of the pressure and booing at Wrigley Field. I'm not building the Sam Fuld Memorial Highway anytime soon, but he has been hot, and that allows the team the flexibility to get Soriano off the roster for a couple of weeks.

Make no mistake, Soriano is important to this team. He has not scored a run in over a week, and he has hardly been on base for the last two months, but he leads the team in runs scored. It is imperative that he returns to a half-way decent level of production if this team is serious about making the playoffs and advancing.

The Cubs get the Braves after losing the makeup game in Atlanta to start off the last road trip from hell. All three games the Cubs have played with Atlanta have been extremely close, with 2 of them going into extra innings.

Then the Cardinals come to town in a battle for the top of the NL Central that culminates with a day/night doubleheader on Sunday as we head into the All-Star break. The Cubs have recently been able to take it to the Cardinals in these big series, so here is hoping that the baseball gods remain napping for just a little longer.

Hold Up On That Fuld Statue for Now

The Cubs are finally home after a June from hell. They managed a league best ERA of 3.18 during the month which translated into an 11-14 record. The pitchers on this team shouldn't have to ever buy a drink again this season because the offense owes them big time.

The Cubs batted a third-worst .233 in June which seemed even worse since they couldn't buy a hit with runners in scoring position. I can't even fathom that there were two teams that somehow managed to perform worse offensively than the Cubs.

The end result is a return home after a 3-7 road trip that has dropped them a game under .500, but inexplicably still within 3 1/2 games of first place. Of course, the other side to that coin is they are only 2 1/2 games out of last place.

The Cubs also return with a new diminutive conquering hero in Sam Fuld, who has replaced Alfonso Soriano as the the leadoff man and left fielder in many fans' hearts. There have been numerous calls on Twitter for Soriano to remain on the bench in favor of Fuld.

I'm hoping that people don't fall in love with Fuld too much because I don't think he is going to be on the roster for long.

The Cubs have traded for Jeff Baker and designated Ryan Freel and his pal, Farney for assignment. I can't imagine anyone giving the Cubs anything for him, so he is most likely either going to be released or he'll accept a trip to the minors. But the acquisition means that there is one less candidate to be removed from the roster when Ramirez comes back.

If I had my way, it would be Aaron Miles who is the next to disappear, but even if I get my wish, Reed Johnson will be returning soon as well. Assuming Fuld survives the return of Ramirez, there is almost no way that he survives the return of Johnson.

The Cubs may play a little roster roulette by placing Soriano or Bradley on the DL with a trumped up injury (Soriano's knee has reportedly been giving him trouble), but that will only serve as another 15-day stay of execution.

Unless we want to see a defense of corner outfielders in the middle infield, the roster is heavy with outfielders, and Fuld has the least seniority. So love him while he is here, but be prepared for a tear-filled goodbye at some point.

Upcoming Lineup Conundrum

The Great Aramis Ramirez Return is tentatively scheduled for Monday, July 6. While we fully expect to have all of the offense's problems solved by the insertion of a guy with a weakened shoulder who hasn't faced live pitching since early May, there are one or two issues that will occur when he returns.

For one, we need to find a spot for him in the lineup. Yes, he will play third and probably bat 4th (though I would argue for 3rd). But who does that push to the bench?

If Lou fielded a lineup featuring the top hitters according to batting average, it might look something like this:

2B Ryan Theriot (.283)
SS Andres Blanco (.240)
1B Derrek Lee (.283)
3B Jake Fox (.321)
LF Micah Hoffpauir (.250)
RF Milton Bradley (.242)
C Geovany Soto (.231)
CF Kosuke Fukudome (.256)

Notice that Soriano is already benched in this scenario, which while we may applaud in principle, it is hardly how this team was ideally constructed to win ballgames. In theory, we should have our 40/40 player somewhere in the lineup.

Now put Ramirez back in that lineup. Huh. The best hitter in this scenario is Jake Fox, who is stationed at third base. If we stick to the rule of highest batting averages making the lineup, we would have to bump Milton Bradley because no one else on this list can play shortstop or catcher.

Otherwise, we have to stick Hoffpauir back on the bench, who has not been great, but certainly has not been the biggest problem offensively since I can actually think of a couple of times he has driven in some big runs for the team.

If we construct the lineup by OBP, then it might look something like this:

LF Alfonso Soriano (.296)
SS Ryan Theriot (.341)
1B Derrek Lee (.364)
3B Jake Fox (.350)
RF Milton Bradley (.355)
C Geovany Soto (.340)
CF Kosuke Fukudome (.377)
2B Mike Fontenot (.303)

Yes, I keep Soriano in the leadoff spot because as putrid as he has been lately, he is a noticeably worse hitter in his career when lower in the order, so if he is in the lineup, it needs to be at leadoff to get anything from him. I also disregard Koyie Hill's .314 OBP because I don't think we can realistically ask him to play either left or second base.

Ramirez's return would push Soriano to the bench and put Fox in left field.

So what if we constructed the lineup by OPS?

2B Alfonso Soriano (.718)
SS Ryan Theriot (.758)
1B Derrek Lee (.834)
3B Jake Fox (.878)
LF Micah Hoffpauir (.743)
RF Milton Bradley (.734)
C Geovany Soto (.722)
CF Kosuke Fukudome (.784)

This pushes all of the mini-middle infielders to the bench except for Muscles Theriot, and forces Soriano back to second base. If not, Zambrano (.660) could learn to play second, or I suppose we could throw Fontenot back out there (.658).

Ramirez's return pushes Milton Bradley to the bench and Fox to left, with Micah moving to right.

So Lou is going to have some choices coming up. He could go by statistics and end up sitting Bradley, Soriano, or both on the bench, or he will have to sit Fox or Hoffpauir, neither of which really deserves it considering the performance of others in the lineup.

Somehow, I have a feeling that unless Ramirez returns as Albert Pujols II, there is going to be much criticism of Lou no matter how he makes his decision. Good luck with that, Lou.

Farney Looking Sane by Comparison

When you read sports fan blogs, you have to be prepared for some highly volatile and reactionary opinions. Fans let emotions take hold of their better judgement and it clouds their senses of reason and logic. It comes with the territory, but it does occasionally make people sound more insane that Ryan Freel, who has a midget named Farney living in his head.

The Cubs are stumbling at the moment so, of course, there has been some chatter about how the calendar could be turning to July and the Cubs don't already have the playoffs clinched in such a crappy division. Instead of marvelling at the fact that Cubs fans aren't all partying like its 1989 because the Cubs are only 3 1/2 games back (as they probably would be in almost any other year of being this close to winning a division), the blogosphere is all riled up and throwing out some less than orthodox solutions to the Cubs problems.

One lunatic thinks that the solution is to cut Carlos Zambrano.

"Get Carlos Zambrano out of here, even if the Cubs have to give him away. He's not the guy you want as the ace of a curse-busting team, and at this point, it's wishful thinking that he'll ever mature into that guy.

Proving that I did not attend Kellogg, Wharton or even the Acme School of Business, I offer this proposition for Jim Hendry: First thing Monday morning, put Zambrano on waivers. If anyone claims him and the $62.75 million left on his contract, which runs through 2012, immediately trade him for whatever is being offered, from a bag of balls to a 32-year-old minor-leaguer."

Now, I understand the frustration and this fan clearly has let his emotions get the best of him when he.... wait. Hold on.... seriously?

OK, sorry folks, I'm being told that this was actually written by Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. My bad. Anyway, this obvious neophyte to journalism and the game of baseball in general clearly has been swayed by.... what? You are f---ing kidding me. He's been doing this for how many years?

Well, um, it turns out that according to Phil Rogers' bio, he "is in his third decade covering major league baseball, and has done it for the Tribune since 1997."

Well, I officially have no explanation for how a grown man, who has been paid to report and write on baseball related topics for thirty years would ever come to the conclusion that the way to make a team better would be to cut a player that Baseball-Reference.com compares most similiarly to, among others: Brandon Webb (Cy Young winner), Pete Vukovich (Cy Young winner), John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, and the pre-DeRosa Cub fan's favorite trading target, Jake Peavy (Cy Young winner).

Clearly, the best way to begin building a World Series winner would be to trade a pitcher with Cy Young talent for a "bag of balls." Yes, this would be much better than trading a utility player for three decent pitching prospects.

So, that was a bad example. Perhaps we should look instead to a crazy lady who wants to fire Lou Piniella because he is the one batting sixty points below his career average and walking every other opposing batter he faces. At least, she argues, Lou is not motivating his players to perform better than the horrible performances they have trotted out there so far.

It is just like a blogger to run to a ridiculous conclusion that the 66-year old Lou can't control a team, but the 65-year old Lou was the master of his clubhouse. You see, it's this kind of crazy arguments that give us fellow bloggers a bad name amongst the professional media. Amateurish, sensationalistic hackery makes us all look.... what's that? No. You have got to be shitting me. This piece of crap was written by a professional journalist? Sigh...

It turns out that the anti-Lou sentiment is courtesy of Carol Slezak of the Suntimes. According to her bio, she "has been a Sun-Times Sports Columnist since 1996." The bio was posted in 2001, so I'm hoping she has some more accolades since, but I don't care enough to look for them.

Alright, sorry again everyone, but you know what they say: third time's a charm. So I went to Chicago Now and found an honest to goodness blog that amongst some other crazy sentiments like elevating Carlos Marmol to the closer role to solve Kevin Gregg's excessive wildness (and a later retraction), the author, "Kap," proposes a trade to the Orioles for Aubrey Huff and George Sherrill that would only cost Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, and a "high level prospect not named Josh Vitters."

Seeing as the Cubs' only high level prospects in the system not named Josh Vitters are actually on the current MLB roster, I have to assume that the prospect to go would be Jake Fox in this scenario.

I looked up Aubrey Huff on Baseball-Reference.com and saw that he is comparable to Vernon Wells and Raul Ibanez. Those are two decent players. Who else? Jacque Jones, Preston Wilson, and Glenallen Hill also pop up on the list. That list is kind of all over the place, but it serves a purpose to point out that Jake Fox (even if he isn't involved in the trade - he would be the one sacrificed off the MLB roster to make room for Huff) could probably give us production at this level, expecially if we set the bar at Jacque Jones.

So the issue becomes whether one half year of George Sherrill is worth parting with two pitchers that could possibly replace Rich Harden in the rotation next year at a very cheap rate. Possibly, but again, the issue this season really has not been the pitching. The bullpen has not been good, but it has been decent lately. The problem is that we don't score any damn runs and they either are protecting a slim lead or trying desperately to not allow any more to score. I just don't see how this trade would make a big enough impact to jeopardize future rosters that may be under more of a salary squeeze than we have currently become accustomed.

Don't get me wrong, Kap's heart is in the right place, but he seems to be jumping off a cliff when it really shouldn't take too much patience to have this team start performing better. Perhaps he isn't as familiar with the current ownership situation. There really is a lot going on behind the scenes, and he may have missed that new ownership probably isn't going to be in place anytime before the end of this season. I'm sure he would probably be a little more rational if he had some insider info that would come from, say, working in Tribune Tower instead of typing away in his mother's.... what? He works where? He broadcasts on what radio station? Oh, for f---'s sake. Come on!

Well, based on what we have seen from the respected professional journalists in Chicago, I guess the season really is that bad and we should all just kill ourselves. Now please excuse me while I go take my toaster into the shower.

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

I woke up this morning as I always do, and watched a rerun of The West Wing on Bravo, as I always do. I even looked forward to it this morning because the episodes flipped over to Season One, which means the episodes are back to being at their best with Aaron Sorkin writing, and without John Wells trying to turn every episode into a menacing prelude of tragedy yet to come.

The episode I caught today was "Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc." The title is Latin, and as Josiah Bartlett promptly taught us, it means "after it, therefore because of it."

Normally, when watching the smartest fictional President and his patriotically dedicated staff of walk-and-talkers, I rarely think about the Cubs. But today, post hoc, ergo propter hoc got me thinking.

Basically, the phrase means that since one thing follows the other it therefore must have been caused by the first. The point in the show and the point that is relevant to the Cubs, is that this is not always true, and, in fact, it often is not true.

In the world of the Cubs, Mark DeRosa was traded. Then the Cubs started hitting the ball poorly, ergo, many, many people have surmised, Mark DeRosa being traded was a mistake.

The reasons for the Cubs not hitting probably have very little to do with Mark DeRosa not being on the team. Mark DeRosa being traded did not (as far as we know) cause Geovany Soto to blaze up in the offeseason, gain a ton of weight, and become a less effective player.

Mark DeRosa being traded did not turn Milton Bradley from a league leader in OPS to someone we would all happily trade for Jacque Jones.

Mark DeRosa's presence on the roster probably would not have prevented Theriot from thinking he is a power hitter, Fontenot from showing his true colors as a part-time player, Aramis Ramirez from getting hurt, and Soriano going into one of the coldest cold spells that his streaky career has ever seen.

The Cubs' freefall from offensive powerhouse to rally-killing specialists almost assuredly can not be attributed to the trade of Mark DeRosa.

At the same time, a Cardinals offense that requires Mark DeRosa to bat CLEANUP will not be propelled to greatness with his sheer presence. They are surely better with him, as the Cubs would have been better with him instead of Aaron Miles, but the acquisition of Mark DeRosa isn't going to win the World Series for the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals land Matt Holliday, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, or any other player of all-star quality to put alongside Pujols, then we can start shaking in our We Believe bracelets. Until that time, the world is not ending (my last post was meant to be satire, but has been misintrepreted at about the same rate as the Bible from which I stole the framework), and the division remains inconceivably winnable.

Be frustrated, be pissed, be whatever you want, but don't try and tell me that the Cubs' failure is because of Mark DeRosa.

ApoCublypse Now

Then I saw the Cub open the first of the seven seals. I heard Ernie Banks say with a voice like thunder, "Go!"

Then I looked, and there was a white horse! Its rider had a bat and a DeRosa jersey, and a Cardinal's hat had been given to him. He went out as a conqueror to conquer.

When the Cub opened the second seal, I heard Billy Williams say, "Go!"

A second horse went out. It was fiery red, and its rider was given permission to take peace away from Wrigley Field and to make people vomit Budweiser on one another. So he was given a large keg.

When the Cub opened the third seal, I heard Ron Santo say, "Go!" I looked, and there was a black horse! Its rider held a Cardinals lineup card in his hand with DeRosa penciled in at third base.

When the Cub opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of Ryne Sandberg say, "Go!"

I looked, and there was a pale horse! Its rider's name was Pujols, and LaRussa followed him. They were given authority over one-fourth of the earth to kill Cubs fans using homeruns, quality starting pitching, squeeze plays, and the most solid fundamentals on the earth.

When the Cub opened the fifth seal, I saw under the bleachers the souls of those who had been slaughtered because of their Shut Up and Drink Your Beer t-shirts and the faith in Hendry they had given.

They cried out in a loud voice, "Harry and Jack, how long will it be before you judge and take revenge on those living in St. Louis who shed our blood?"

Each of them was given a floppy hat. They were told to rest a little longer until the number of their fellow fans and their brothers was completed, who would be killed as they had been killed.

Then I saw the Cub open the sixth seal. There was a powerful earthquake. The ivy turned as black as pinetar, and the Wrigley lights turned as red as blood.

The stars in the sky fell to the earth like Soriano drops a routine flyball when there is a little bit of wind.

The sky vanished like the infield tarp being rolled up, and every bar and restaurant in Wrigleyville was moved from its place.

Then the coaches, the players, the agents, and the hangers-on, and all the remaining beer-soaked fans hid themselves under the scoreboard and among the seats in the grandstands.

They said to the scoreboard and grandstand, "Fall on us and hide us from the face of the one who sits on the throne and from the wrath of DeRosa.

For the great day of his wrath has come, and who is able to endure it?"

Get the Motorcade Warmed Up

About the only thing that could possibly knock Michael Jackson's death out of the news right now would be the Cubs reacquiring Mark DeRosa.

I have said many times in the past that I do not believe that the Cubs woes are caused sheerly by the lack of a glorified utility player in the lineup. I do not believe that Mark DeRosa has the kind of talent that can single-handedly transform a lineup as Manny Ramirez did for the Dodgers last year.

That being said, it would not completely displease me to eventually see DeRosa in a Cubs uniform this year. Jason Stark, at ESPN, is saying the Cubs are inquiring about his availability.

• The Cubs have considered trying to reacquire Mark DeRosa.
• They've also done some preliminary searching for a bat, but they're not sure where they'd play a new hitter so that gives the versatile DeRosa extra appeal.

Though I cringe at the thought of a Beatlesesque squeal emanating throughout Wrigleyville if this deal is ever completed, it is not a terrible idea. It is becoming increasingly evident that the Mike Fontenot experiment is failing. He is not proving himself to be an everyday player in the major leagues, and it is now becoming debatable whether he will be able to resume usefulness as a role player.

Given that we have no clue what Aramis Ramirez is going to bring to the table when he eventually returns, we still have numerous gaping holes in the lineup that need to be addressed. Based on the composition of the roster, the position that is most likely to be upgraded offensively is second base.

Fontenot isn't hitting the way we hoped he would. Miles is only good at cashing his paychecks. Andres Blanco is a good fielding, weak hitting option. None of these guys are a better option than Mark DeRosa even when you worry about the lineup being "too right-handed."

I give Hendry credit for attempting to do the right thing in the off-season. It was very disconcerting to see an all-righty lineup get set down easily and often by strong right-handed pitching. He attempted to sell high on a player that had at least approached his peak performance, if not achieved it last season. He tried to bring in a fiery presence, and a bat that was capable of leading the heavy-hitting American League in OPS.

It all sounded reasonable on paper. It probably would have even worked on a team that was not the Cubs. But the right plays don't always work out. I won't bore you with the details of the entire hand, but when I was in Vegas playing poker, I pushed all-in with Ace-King with an ace on the board. I KNEW my opponent had an ace, and I KNEW he probably hadn't made two pair. So I pushed him to commit almost his whole stack. It was the right play because I figured I was over 90% to win.

He called me, turned over Ace-Queen, and promptly caught a Queen on the river to bust me. I lost that hand, and I had played it correctly. It happens.

The same type of thing is happening to Hendry. On paper, this team should be more dangerous than the team that won 97 games last year, especially when you consider that the Marshall/Wells combination in the fifth rotation spot has given more consistently quality outings than Marquis did last year. Instead, it seems the odds of a Cubs run scoring is about the same as me winning the lottery.

Every now and again, the baseball gods will provide an opportunity for a mulligan. After the 2005 season, the Red Sox traded backup catcher Doug Mirabelli to the Padres because they had a young prospect, Josh Bard, that they felt was ready to become Jason Varitek's backup.

It became clear as the season began that neither Bard nor Varitek could handle catching Tim Wakefield, the rotation's knuckleballer. Theo Epstein managed to swallow his pride and correct the move (even though he may have still believed it was the correct move to make in the off-season) by trading Bard to San Diego for Mirabelli.

"Josh was working really hard and going about it in a very professional way. But we just didn't necessarily have the luxury of time waiting to find out if things would get better so we made this move now while Doug was available at a reasonable cost."

Mirabelli received a police escort from the airport to Fenway so that he could step right into the lineup to catch Wakefield on the day of the trade. The return of Mirabelli was hailed in Boston unlike any kind of reception a back-up catcher should ever receive.

So there is historical precedence. The Cubs also do not have the luxury of time on their side. The window of opportunity is closing quickly, and they almost assuredly will need to make a move somewhere. The roster is aging. The sale is not going through any time soon, which means there will not be a huge spending spree to fix problems. Our veterans almost all have no-trade clauses, so blowing up the roster and starting over with quality prospects from other teams is not a probable option.

The time to win is right now and if that means trading for Mark DeRosa again, that is what it should be. Set up the parade route, arrange for the secret service to secure the field so he can take infield practice without having Dave Kaplan attempt to hump his leg. In fact, go ahead and have him helicoptered right into the ballpark so he can step out and assume his position at second without any issues.

There may be other options, but it is almost July, so it's time to start giving some serious consideration to swallowing the pride and trying to correct the issues.

Hoping and praying haven't really worked as a strategy for the last 100 years, and I'm doubting it will work this year.