Math Hasn't Killed the Cubs Yet

I was looking over a post at The Cub Reporter about how much padding the Pirates have provided the Cubs overall record over the last couple of years, when I saw a comment by a reader known there as "dcf."

He went through the remaining schedule of the Cubs and the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card "chase":

Submitted by dcf on Wed, 09/09/2009 - 6:59pm.

A few observations about the schedule and the standings:

--the Cubs play only one team that is ahead of them in the wild card standings (and not currently in first place) from here on out: the Giants, on the road, for a 4 game set from September 24th through 27th.

--the Giants series is the end of a 10 game road swing (the other two series are 3 game sets with the Cardinals and Brewers); these are the only remaining road games on the schedule; there is a possibility that the Cubs will be mathematically eliminated during this road swing

--the Cubs are now 31-40 on the road

--at home the Cubs play Cincinnati 3, Milwaukee 4, Pittsburgh 4 and Arizona 3. All of these teams are below .500. Cubs are currently 8-4 vs. the Reds on the season, 6-4 vs. the Brewers, 8-2 vs. the Pirates and 1-2 vs. the D-Backs (in Arizona).

--Colorado has 11 home games left and 12 road games. In addition to the Giants, they also play the Cardinals 3 times at home and the Dodgers 4 times on the road. Everyone else on their schedule is below .500.

--SF has 22 games left, 9 on the road and 13 at home. They play the Dodgers 6 times (3 home, 3 away), Colorado 3 times at home and the Cubs 4 times at home. The rest of their games are against below .500 teams.

--Florida has 24 games left, 9 home and 15 on the road. They play 3 at St. Louis, 6 against the Phillies (3 home, 3 away) and 3 at Atlanta. The rest of their games are against below .500 teams.

--Atlanta has 24 games left, 13 home and 11 on the road. They play the Cardinals 3 times on the road, the Phillies 3 times at home and the Marlins 3 times at home. The rest of their games are against below .500 teams.

--Of course, when you look at the wild card, you need to keep in mind that the first place teams could be back in the mix. I don't think that's likely for the Cardinals, but it is not out of the realm of possibility for the Dodgers (currently 3.5 games up) or the Phillies (currently 6 games up)

--Cub fans need to root for the Cardinals, Dodgers and Phillies to win against the Rockies (7 games), Giants (6 games), Marlins (9 games) and Braves (6 games).

--The Giants have two series (7 games) against the Cubs or teams tied with or ahead of the Cubs in the wild card standings. The Rockies, Marlins, Cubs and Braves all have just one series against another wild card contender; the Cubs have a 4 game series and the other series are all 3 games

--on the ESPN standings page, the Cubs' playoff probability is 1.2% at this point. Their destiny has not been in their hands for a long time. At this point, short of perhaps winning out (which would give them 95 wins and an unprecedented 27 game winning streak to end the season) they will need substantial help and a lot of luck to make it in. Out of principle, I have refused to give up until the team is mathematically eliminated, but this is tough.

I'm sure the percentage is slightly lower now since the Reds blew a 9th inning lead in Colorado last night, but that gives a pretty good indication of exactly how dire the Cubs situation is and how many different dominoes have to fall just right for the Cubs to achieve a miracle finish to the season.

Go Cubs Go. And let's go Dodgers, Phillies, and Cardinals (clap, clap, clap clap clap).